|
|
1990-1992
|
2001-2003
|
Agriculture as share of GDP
|
|
Low income countries
|
315
|
363
|
20%
|
|
Middle income countries
|
530
|
708
|
9%
|
|
High income countries
|
14,997
|
24,438
|
2%
|
|
France
|
22,234
|
39,220
|
2%
|
|
China
|
254
|
368
|
12%
|
|
Malawi
|
72
|
130
|
36%
|
A blog about the future of the planet. Ecology, Environment, Development and Economy are put together and looked at critically.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Organic farming as a strategy for a new economy
Sunday, July 10, 2011
The pot of gold at the base of the pyramid
| A "supamarket" in Bujumbura July 2011 |
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Towards a society of services or servants?
Most people would do their cleaning themselves if they had to pay the cleaning lady the same salary as their own, it is as simple as that.
It is said that we are moving towards a society of services. There is some truth in this, even if manufacturing still plays a bigger role than many believe. Globally manufacturing is actually not shrinking, even if it goes down in high-income countries. On the global level, the striking change is from agriculture to services. Historically there was a transformation from agriculture to industry to services but in some countries, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is no such transition; people move out from the agriculture sector directly to the service sector. When we look at the proportion of people employed in different sectors, and not the absolute number of people, we forget that the number of people working in e.g. farming is very high and in most parts of the world actually rather stable. Between 1970 and 2000 the number of people engaged in the farm sector in Latin America was more or less constant (Ploeg 2009). Perhaps even more surprising for many is that despite the rapid pace of urbanization the number of people in rural areas and the number of farms are increasing and not decreasing (although this will change quite soon and the number of farmers certainly is on a rapid decrease in high-income countries).
Table 19: World employment by sector 1998-2008
|
| Agriculture (%) | Industry (%) | Service (%) | |||
|
| 1998 | 2008 | 1998 | 2008 | 1998 | 2008 |
| World | 41.6 | 34.5 | 20 | 21.6 | 38.4 | 43.8 |
| High-Income countries | 5.8 | 3.7 | 28.0 | 24.9 | 66.2 | 71.4 |
Source: KILM 2010
We can see more detail from the US employment data, where retail trade is a bigger employer than manufacturing, however in terms of economic output it only “produce” one third as much value. Professional and business service is a growth sector as well as health care. 9.6 million were employed in food services (restaurants, bars, catering) and 1.5 million in food manufacturing, 15.3 million in retail, compared to just above 2 million in the agriculture sector (Bartsch 2009)
The statistics mask that earlier a lot of the services, e.g. health care and personal care was performed outside of the formal labour market, mainly in the families. Also, manufacturing has outsourced a lot of functions which means that was earlier counted as “manufacturing” is today called services. The growing service sector has four distinct segments. One is the professional services oriented to the business and industries, it can be auditing, engineering, back office functions of many kinds. In the statistics, these same jobs if they are performed in-house the factory would be qualified as a manufacturing job. These kinds of services are generally speaking well paid. Second, we have the whole apparatus of wholesale, transport and retail, together representing 17-18 percent of the work force in the USA. Some of that is also oriented to manufacturing, but most of it is for the consumer market. There is a hospitality industry dominated by restaurants, bars and drinking places with almost ten percent of the work force. This sector is where we find a lot of low-paid low skilled work. Third, we have the police, health care and education, things that in most countries are performed by the public sector. Often these jobs are quite badly paid, but have better employment conditions than the retail or restaurants. Fourth, there is the pure personal service sector, cleaning, massage, shoe-shining etc. things that historically were done by servants. Here conditions are often bad, in some countries a lot of it is done by migrant workers, legal or illegal. Those who predict that there will be a lot of growth in that sector also predicts that we will continue to have big differences in income because it is basically differences in income that drives and make possible most of these kinds of services.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
What about a few more people in farming?
One doesn't have to be an economist to realise that we value something higher that is in short supply than something that is abundant. For a long time nature was seen as unlimited, just for us to exploit as we saw fit. Up to the industrial revolution exploitation was fairly proportionate to the growing population. With the industrial revolution we expand exploitation through the application of energy and technology at a raging pace. But we can see that resources are depleted and that we need to take better care of them. At the same time our population has exploded.
Not that I think we should compare humans and trees but to put it a bit provocatively: As we have more and more people and less and less nature, we have to value nature higher and people less, or at least human labour less."Saving" nature must have priority over saving labour. A question is how we make a system of regulations and incentives to cater for that, a system that doesn't erode respect for human rights and human values?Just look at employment in the USA: 9.6 million were employed in food services (restaurants, bars, catering) and 1.5 million in food manufacturing, 15.3 million in retail, compared to just above 2 million in the agriculture sector.
This simply makes no sense. There must be something fundamentally wrong with a system that employs more people flipping hamburgers than taking care of the planet...
Table 28: US employment by sector 1998-2018
US Employment by major industry sector, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018 | |||
| Industry sector | Percent distribution | ||
| 1998 | 2008 | 2018 | |
| Non-agriculture wage and salary | 90.1 | 91.3 | 91.7 |
| Goods-producing, excluding agriculture | 17.3 | 14.2 | 12.9 |
| Mining | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Construction | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Manufacturing | 12.5 | 8.9 | 7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Services-providing | 72.8 | 77.2 | 78.8 |
| Utilities | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Wholesale trade | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Retail trade | 10.4 | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Information | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Financial activities | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Professional and business services | 10.8 | 11.8 | 13.2 |
| Educational services | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Health care and social assistance | 8.7 | 10.5 | 11.9 |
| Leisure and hospitality | 8.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| Other services | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Federal government | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| State and local government | 12.2 | 13.1 | 12.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Agriculture wage and salary | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-agriculture self-employed and unpaid family worker | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| Other | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Source: Bartsch 2009, Employment Projections Program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics