A recent report from
the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) confirms that the
current food system isn’t sustainable neither for the environment nor for our health.
Organic agriculture, conservation farming and agro-ecology are key technologies
for a transition to a sustainable food system, which also has to shun artificial
nitrogen fertilizers. Regardless of how food is produced, an equitable society is
essential for fighting hunger and malnutrition.
The report, The future of food and agriculture –
Alternative pathways to 2050, analyses three future scenarios that
reflect, to varying degrees, the challenges to move food and agricultural
systems towards “a world in which food is nutritious and accessible for everyone
and natural resources are managed in a way that maintain ecosystem functions to
support current as well as future human needs”, as wished by FAO.
The first scenario is “business as usual”, whereby several
outstanding challenges facing food and agriculture are left unaddressed. The
second scenario, “towards sustainability”, embodies proactive changes towards
more sustainable food and agricultural systems. The third scenario, “stratified
societies”, outlines a future with exacerbated inequalities across countries
and throughout different layers of societies. For all scenarios, the FAO revise
the earlier projections made by itself and others that agriculture output need
to increase with at
least 70 percent to cope with a bigger population and changing consumption
patterns. For the “towards sustainability” scenario agriculture output needs to
increase with “just” 40 percent, and for the other scenarios around 50 percent.
The results suggest that it is still possible to move food
and agricultural systems along a sustainable, equitable pathway that will meet
growing demand. A global transformative process and concerted efforts that involve
all the stakeholders is needed, however. As “business
as usual” is not an option and further “stratified societies” certainly are
not desirable, let’s focus on the “towards sustainability and how the FAO
understand the meaning of it and how to get there.
In the report the FAO states that there will be a transition
towards a more sustainable use of natural resources. Chemical will be
restrained: for example, regulations on
nitrate usage or fertilizer quantity and type are in place, which favors
precision and/or organic agriculture. Food systems generating low GHG emissions
are favored, and fresh food consumption is promoted. Adopting conservation
agriculture, agro-ecological approaches, agroforestry, and other
environmentally-friendly techniques allows yields to increase against current levels
and to converge across countries, while food systems drastically reduce GHG
emissions compared with current levels. Greater crop diversification and
integrated pest management approaches strengthen resilience to shocks.
Agricultural prices will rise worldwide, reflecting both pressure on demand and
the adoption of sustainable production practices.
The flip side of that is better income for farmers and
considerably less food waste. The flop side is that people depending on cash
income to buy food may suffer. Therefore “Ensuring a more equitable
distribution of income within and across countries is indispensable in the
quest for food security, better nutrition and environmental sustainability of
food systems.” The report does note, however, that increased agriculture prices
will benefit many of the rural poor as they either are farmers or farm workers
and that such a development will reduce the “urban premium”, i.e. change the
rural-urban balance.
Contrary
to the EAT Lancet Commission, the FAO doesn’t think that continued use of artificial
fertilizers and drastic cuts in meat consumption are necessary for a
sustainable food system. The per capita consumption of animal products and
vegetables is projected to increase substantially in low and middle income
countries, while consumption of animal products will have to go down around 10
percent in high income countries. Despite that agriculture production will
expand considerably to cater for a bigger population and livestock herds will expand
with 26 percent, the total greenhouse gas emissions are projected to go down. There
is a need for a small expansion, less than six percent, of agriculture area,
even though the regional distribution varies, in Sub-saharan Africa acreage
need to double. The most remarkable feature of the scenario
towards sustainability is that nitrogen fertilizer use has to stop.
For those in the food movement or in the agro-ecological, organic
or regenerative agriculture movements the messages are hardly surprising,
controversial or radical enough. But that FAO publishes a major report that
even has a scenario for future agriculture where no artificial nitrogen
fertilizer is used is nothing but a minor revolution. According to sources in
the agency there was no launch, no press, no printed copies and a message from
management to “keep a low profile”, regarding the report.
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