Thursday, October 28, 2010

Man giveth and he taketh away



Man’s activities sometimes lead to extinction of other species. Of 10,000 bird species, 90 have been extinct since year 1600, another 1,000 are considered to be threatened. Of the extinct species, most were endemic, i.e. existed only in one isolated environment, mostly an island. A third of the extinct birds were on Hawaii. Also so called indigenous people exterminated other species. Twelve of the ninety bird species were exterminated by the Maori on New Zeeland, before arrival of the Europeans (NRM 2008). The Maori were also newcomers in the environment. The role of humans in the great death of big mammals in North and South America is still disputed, but the mammoth, the mastodon, camels, horses, bears and big cats disappeared within some thousand years after the first appearance of humans in the Americas. And there is no other, better, explanation given than that humans were to blame1. And it is sad. As Rolf says: “our life becomes poorer, emptier, when one life form is lost and diversity reduced. Life forms lost can never be replaced. A lost instrument is a loss for the whole orchestra, and reduced the power of the symphony” (Edberg 1976, my translation).

Meanwhile, we should have a reasonable perspective. Some claim that 99 percent of all species have been extinct already over the billions of . And most people are likely to be happy for that the Tyrannosaurus Rex is not roaming around; if it did I am certain that there would be calls for their culling. One often hear that there are chain reactions; if one species vanish there will be chain reactions so that other species also disappear, or that the whole balance in the ecosystem is disturbed with unpredictable consequences. And, for sure, it can be like that; there are keystone species. Perhaps it is a small predator that prevents a particular herbivorous species from eliminating dominant plant species. Without the predators, the herbivorous prey would explode in numbers, wipe out the dominant plants, and dramatically alter the character of the ecosystem. The scenario varies, but the central idea remains that one species has a fundamental impact on ecosystem functions. On the other hand, nature is very multifaceted, and at least in the longer view new balance will come. Also, species that vanishes are, mostly, specialists with narrow niches, rather than generalists. If they are gone, a generalist will often take their place, at least for a . Humans, mice and house sparrows are generalists which adapt themselves to many different environments (the mice and the sparrows seem to follow in our footsteps). Humans have, accordingly, taken over the role of many of the predators they have exterminated.

One hundred species per million are currently estimated to be lost per year (Rockström and others 2009). But what does it really say us? We have no clue even how many species there are: "Right now we can only guess that the correct answer for the total number of species worldwide lies between 2 and 100 million," says the ecologists Michael Rosenzweig (Society For Conservation Biology 2003). According to the latest Red List, 17 291 species out of 47 677 assessed are under threat: 21 per cent of all known mammals, 30 per cent of all known amphibians, 12 per cent of all known birds, 28 per cent of reptiles, 37 per cent of freshwater fishes, 70 per cent of plants, and 35 per cent of invertebrates (UNEP 2010b). Coral species are deteriorating most rapidly in status. Nearly a quarter of plant species are estimated to be threatened with extinction. The abundance of vertebrate species, based on assessed populations, fell by nearly a third on average between 1970 and 2006, and continues to fall globally, with especially severe declines in the tropics and among freshwater species (CBD 2010). Mass extinctions have taken place earlier. But the belief5 is that in earlier mass extinctions the rate was some 15-30 species per year while we are now speaking about thousands. According the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is the rate some 50-1000 times higher than earlier. It estimates that the rate will increase further (MEA 2005).

We should be worried that so many species are disappearing in such a rapid pace. It can lead to a loss of potential raw materials e.g. for food, medicines or pest control agents. More than 50 percent of all medicines are produced by substances first detected in nature. More than 50,000 species are used for medical purposes of which 3,000 at a volume where they are traded internationally. Some 1,000 of them are grown commercially (Lehman 2009). But by and large it is not that one specie is lost that we shall see as a problem. If that would have been a disaster the world would already be gone as most species have been extinct. The problem is the large scale transformation of the whole planet to serve us humans, a process where we don’t only exterminate a few species, but landscapes, whole ecosystems and their essential life-upholding services. Measures to keep one species alive can command enormous resources, and ultimately, still be in vain because the habitat is simply not there any longer. Instead of straining the resources of society – and the support of the citizens – in order to save one species, it might be a better investment to put the resource into keeping some thirty other species, with better life expectancy so to say, abundant.

In the same way as we humans have created new ecosystems (farms, parks, rangelands) we have also created many new plants and animals. Just think about all dog races and the many cows and thousands of plants that don’t exist in nature. Many plants we grow can’t even multiply naturally (apples and roses just to mention a few). Of course, the plants we developed don’t replace the ones we exterminate. Now a lot of this agro-biodiversity is threatened. It might sound paradoxically that some of the most threatened plants, animals and ecosystems are those we created ourselves. But at a closer look it is quite apparent. We have created them and it is only our active care that keeps them alive. If we stop to use them and take care of them, their whole life space disappears. And we humans have constantly changed our use of nature as we have changed our own behaviours and our organization in society. As little as we can take care of every single species in nature, can we take care of every variety of cabbage or breed of sheep. Most of the things we created are not very competitive in nature and some of them are functionally defect, e.g. turkeys that can’t reproduce themselves or cows, like the Belgian blue, which can’t give birth naturally. And we have genetically modified crops which have the “evolutionary advantage” that the can survive a spray with a certain herbicide, glyphosate (better know under one of its trade names (Roundup ©). These crops are linked to an “ecosystem” where this herbicide is the main selective forces. There is certainly no value in keeping those genes alive!

Another peep view of Garden Earth

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Rich people are not starving – can markets help?

It is the World Hunger Day 16 October
Who is starving? It is perhaps quite obvious but is has to be said: Rich people don’t starve. Also, I believe most people have also understood that there is, globally, enough food in the world, it is just badly distributed, and also a lot of food is going to waste, in high-income countries mainly at the retail and consumption stages, in low income countries more often in the field and in immediate post harvesting. Many countries where people are hungry are also exporting food.

Far too often hunger and malnutrition are discussed as a problem to be solved by certain agricultural technologies, such as chemical fertilizers of GMOs. India is a poster child of the so called Green Revolution, a package of modern seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, which was introduced already 50 years ago. The Indian government is still subsidizing chemical fertilizers in the tune of US$ 20 billion annually. Nevertheless, India is the country in the world with most hungry people, 237 million people, that is almost as many hungry as in the whole of sub-Saharan Africa (239 million). In light of that, I can’t understand why some people are promoting more of the same recipe as a solution for the world’s hungry.

Despite a virtual population explosion, thanks to the impressive productivity gains by the world’s farmers food prices have decreased dramatically over the last sixty years. We are speaking about a fall in prices of about 60 percent for staple foods. But the number of hungry has been fairly constant. This shows two things. That increased total production of food is not a recipe for food security and that lower food prices is not the way out of hunger. Low food prices might be good for poor people in urban areas, and angry, hungry young men in cities are prone to rioting and uprising. But most of the hungry people are, perhaps paradoxically, in the country-side and many of them are small farmers.

For a Swede the idea that a farmer is starving may sound strange, but actually we don’t have to go more than 150 years back in our own history to find a similar situation. Small tenant farmers, torpare, were often not able to produce the food their, often large, families needed. In many cases, they (man and wife) had to work for a landlord or someone else to earn money for paying the rent of the farm, some clothes, tools etc. When they should have attended to their own crops at the peak of the year’s sowing and harvesting, that was also when their labor was in most demand. Their older children had to look for jobs instead of helping out on the farm. The farm itself was small and they lacked good tools to make their work more efficient. To pay what they owe they often had to sell of their meager crop at harvest when prices were low and buy in the lean period before next years crop. Because they lived in bad conditions they got more sick, but couldn’t afford proper medical care and in the end they couldn’t work so well.

This is a description of the situation of many of the poor today as well. In the very short term such household will benefit from lower food prices because they are net buyers. But this should not lead us into thinking that low food prices are good for them. By and large, low prices on agriculture products are bad news for agriculture. It means that farmers have to produce more to afford other necessities of life, pay their rent, their school fees, their medicines etc. And it is bad for the whole rural economy. Even for landless farm workers it is better that the farmers, their employers, make money than that they lose money. One can easily see in periods of high prices for a particular crop, e.g. coffee, how a whole area flourish.

But there are differences in effects. If the main money earner is a plantation kind of crop sold for export, wealth spreads less in rural areas. And even less if the main money earner is produced with the help of a lot of inputs that have to be bought from other areas, or other countries. That is one of many reasons for why proponents of sustainable agriculture are skeptical about increasing yields by the means of purchased inputs. Another reason is that it dramatically increases the risk of the farmer. If the crop fails, or if the world market price collapses the farmer sits with a hefty bill to be paid, but no income, which will throw him or her into absolute despair and poverty. The same increase of income gained by getting a higher price or by getting a good yield with use of local, free or low-cost inputs, is a lot safer and keeps money in rural economy. That is one of the reasons behind the promotion of organic agriculture for small-holders.

I had the pleasure to work with a Sida-financed project for organic farming in Uganda and Tanzania, the Export Promotion of Organic Products from Africa, EPOPA2, program. In the end of the project in 2008, it had 131,000 farms (corresponding to around 1 million people) engaged in 34 projects. The annual export sales value was around US$ 31 million, of which around half reached the farmers. We commissioned several studies that showed beyond doubt that the farm households in the project experienced improved food security. The main effect by which they improved their food security was by increased income. There are other schemes aiming at similar things, such as Rainforest Alliance, Fair Trade etc., but organic is without competition the most important scheme with a global market of around US$ 55 billion and constantly growing, even through the recession.

There are some complications with large scale international trade in food. One is that there is a large scale movement of nutrients from the exporting country to the importing country. Soils are mined and depleted in exporting countries and importing countries get an excess of nutrients, causing environmental problem. This is not sustainable. Another troubling aspect of free international trade is the extreme tilted competition. Farmers in developing countries are supposed to compete with farmers in high income countries which are heavily subsidized, in the range of US$ 250 billion annually (OECD PSE rate). And even worse, the productivity per worker in OECD countries is in the range of US$ 25,000 dollars, while in low income countries it is just a few hundred dollars. Or expressed in other terms: a farmer in low income countries produce less than a ton of grain from one year of toil while a farmer or farm worker in OECD countries produce 500 up to 2000 tons. Is it really realistic for them to compete in a free global market? In my view trade from low income, tropical countries, shall focus on crops with high-energy, low-nutrient content, such as sugar, cotton and oil or crops, in this way what is exported is basically carbon, packaged solar energy, of which the tropics is abundant. The other option is high-value per kg crops such as spices, coffee and cocoa. Many of these crops are not easily produced in high income countries, which is the reason for why poor countries are still competitive. The day the GMO engineers of agri-business has made a coffee tasting corn that can be grown in the plains of the US, Ukraine or Argentina, millions of small holders in Ethiopia or Rwanda will be in for a very, very bad time.

That the confidence in the global market is rather weak was shown in a dramatic way during the last food price hike where countries introduced export bans and even more interestingly some net food importing countries, such as South Korea, Libya and Saudi-Arabia made bilateral agreements with food producing countries to safeguard food supply. With that in mind I think we need to be a bit cautious about promoting global food markets as a solution to problems of poverty and food security. Sweden has a very strong free trade tradition and it is popular here to blame all problems on trade restrictions and to believe that most problems can be solved by trade liberalization. Food is not just another commodity to be shipped and the relationship between humans, the food they eat and their local ecosystems needs to be strong to nurture a sustainable stewardship of the planet, locally and globally. So while it is clear that international markets represent a great opportunity for many, I believe they should not be oversold as a panacea.

I don’t have the Answer, and perhaps there is no such simple answer. Markets certainly can help, but they will not solve some underlying disparities. Hunger is mainly about poverty, and poverty is largely about power, it is power that has determined who has and who has not. To give poor people access to resources; land, capital and water in particular; and political influence are most important. Direct cash contributions to vulnerable households are probably an interesting solution, which also will stimulate local food production and local food markets.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Mad as hell

The Environmentalist's paradox

Untangling the Environmentalist’s Paradox: Why Is Human Well-being Increasing as Ecosystem Services Degrade?

Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne, Garry D. Peterson, Maria Tengö, Elena M. Bennett, Tim Holland, Karina Benessaiah, Graham K. MacDonald, and Laura Pfeifer has published an interesting article with that title in Bioscience. And hand on your heart, if you are a person engaged in environmental issues, isn't a devastating collapse one of the best arguments for changes? But on the other hand we who would wish that to happen. Anyway, if you are too lazy to read the whole article. They write:

"Environmentalists have argued that ecological degradation will lead to declines in the well-being of people dependent on ecosystem services. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment paradoxically found that human well-being has increased despite large global declines in most ecosystem services. We assess four explanations of these divergent trends: (1) We have measured well-being incorrectly; (2) well-being is dependent on food services, which are increasing, and not on other services that are declining; (3) technology has decoupled well-being from nature; (4) time lags may lead to future declines in well-being."

In the article they come to the conclusion that evidence is very weak for 1) ; fairly strong for 2); not convincing for 3) and for 4) they say there is mixed evidence but strong theoretical support. I find the article interesting and well reasoned, but I don't understand how 4) can have only "weak emperical" support. I believe that climate change is a good example and that soil degradation in many parts of the world is another example. And there are certainly many local cases of environmental degradation reducing peoples' wellbeing, such as water and air pollution, noise in cities etc.

In the conclusions they say:
"Evidence presented here suggests that the growth of human well-being despite losses of ecosystem services can be partially explained, but not completely resolved, using available data. Trying to untangle why measures of human well-being are on the rise while ecosystem conditions decline is critical to improving ecosystem management. This conclusion highlights an important but often blurred distinction between human impacts on the biosphere and the biosphere’s impact on human well-being (my italics). These are clearly two different things, and although we have a good understanding of the negative impacts of much of human action on biodiversity, natural capital, and the biosphere, we have only a weak understanding of the consequences of changes in the Earth system for human well-being."

read it!

Sunday, September 19, 2010

The Malawi Fertilizer Myth?

I participate in many international events where food security is discussed. Again and again the proponents of an African Green Revolution are promoting subsidised chemical fertilizers as a panacea. And they bring the Malawi success story to the table. Well, even if I don't believe the story, it is hard to argue against when there is no reliable data or proper analysis. There is really very little data that supports the story either, but when "big names" say it again and again it kind of becomes a truth. Just the other day Jeffrey Sachs wrote in the IHT "African leaders, such as President Bingu wa Mutharika of Malawi, also broke old donor-led shibboleths by establishing new government programs to get fertilizer and high-yield seeds to impoverished peasant farmers who could not afford these inputs. Farm yields soared once nitrogen got back into the depleted soils."

Many African leaders are also very keen on subsidies to chemical fertilizers - when paid by foreign donors - as it is a cheap way of to keep people in the countryside a bit happy, buying votes to express it a bit cynically.

But the policies of subsidising fertilizers were tried decades before and it always failed. African farmers are not stupid. When they don't use chemical fertilizers it is because it is not profitable and because it is risky: If there is a draught it certainly doesn't help anything that you have used fertilizers, the only thing you have left is the debt for buying them......

Finally I have at least found one report that debunks some of the myths about the "success" of fertilizers in Malawi. "The myth of Malawi’s food self-sufficiency ― enough food for everyone?
Implication of policy and food entitlement in household food security of rural Malawi"
by Sachi Yamada. The report gives a much more nuanced picture of what are the important issues for food security in Malawi. It clarifies that most of the food deficient households, being farmers or non-farmers are constrained by low cash income, and that even those that have land are forced to seek casual employement to get income, and that such employment is mostly available at the same time as they need to work their own lands, i.e. at sowing and harvest. In addition, when they do have a surpluse, they need to sell it at harvest to get cash, which means they have to buy again in the lean period before next harvest - when prices are higher. The report doesn't say that subsidies of fertilizers are bad, but it also shows how limited the success is.

Another study of use of fertilizers in Malawi, Zambia and Kenya concludes that:
As a tool for increasing overall agricultural productivity, especially for small, poor farmers, fertilizer subsidies have a questionable record. Long experience with input subsidy programs in Africa is not encouraging on several points: (a) there is very little evidence from Africa that fertilizer subsidies have been a sustainable or cost-effective way to achieve agricultural productivity gains compared to other investments, (b) there are no examples of subsidy programs where the benefits were not disproportionately captured by larger and relatively better-off farmers, even when efforts were made to target subsidies to the poorand (c) there is little evidence that subsidies or other intensive fertilizer promotion programs have “kick-started” productivity growth among poor farmers in Africa enough to sustain high levels of input use once the programs end.

Poverty is and remains the cause of hunger. And ultimately poverty is a question about power, because power relationships determine who has and who has not. In the short term, it seems more reasonable to give food insecure household cash instead of fertilizers. Then they don't have to sell their maize at lowest price and then they could even invest in their production and make their own choice if they want to invest in a treddle pump, a new hoe, in chemical fertilizers or organic fertilizers.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Why is it so hard to live in a civilization that is based on the straight line?

“Why is it so hard to live in a civilization that is based on the straight line?” asks Tor Nörretranders and supplies the answer: “because it has so little information”. We have all the time strived to increase accessibility and predictability in our relationship with nature and other people. That is why we build roads and why we make laws. With industrialism we can create a very predictable world, a world where we can sleep well in a comfortable bed in warm houses without fearing the wolfs, where we don't have to look down where to put our foot, because the know the pavement is even; we can count on that the meeting car is driving on the “right” side of the road. This world also easily become a very boring world, exactly because it is so predictable. And in no way, is the information society giving us a more complex world or less predictable world. Despite its name, the information technology has less information than the technologies it replaces. “Humans that have the capacity to meaningfully process millions of bits per second are now processing a few bits in a computer screen” (Nörretranders 1991).

This is another side of how we build society, and another example of how too much of something that is essentially good and useful can become a burden.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Time to retire?

Some claim that we have to know now what an alternative way of organizing society will look like; that even to entitle us to criticize the existing society, we need to have an alternative to put in place of it. But there is no reason to demand that we know how a future society would look like in order to criticize the current. Humanity didn't chose capitalism, it grew, stealthily, under feudalism, and once it had matured and the conditions were the right it took over society, or at least tried to dominate it. At no particular point in time, in most countries, did “the people” make a clear choice to introduce capitalism. When the masses finally got limited power through parliamentary democracy, capitalism was already a fait accomplit. In the same way that the empires that emerged with iron represented an aggressive impulse that forced others to become similar, capitalism forced others to adopt the same system, either by direct conquest (colonization) or by competition. That military dictatorship or capitalist nature domination spread and conquered other cultures is not a proof that they are, or were superior in any way or that they are sustainable, as little as the cancer cell is better than the normal cell, even if it sometimes win.

All societies have their growth periods, maturity and decline. Decline has started long before we can point to defined proofs. When civilization has built the biggest temples for its own glory, mold, termites, rodents and rot are already busy to tear it down. We are there already. Shall we go on building temples like the Maya? Exactly what is it in the capitalist project that we so desperately hang on to? Is it the sanctity of private property; the freedom of the individual; the difference in income; the commercialization of all aspects of our life; the leveling of differences in cultures and values across the globe? It is time to ask those questions, to critical ask ourselves: what was it that we wanted to accomplish? If it was a high standard of living? We have it now. If it was freedom of the individual?, we have that as well (well at least in many countries). Are you sure we need the same system to maintain these as the one that created them? For clearing new land, we cut down forests, or drain swamps, we burn, we use heavy machinery to make the land suitable for farming, but once we done that, we can use much simpler techniques every year. Is it perhaps like that with capitalism? It has done its job. Time to retire?

The good news is that the new society is already emerging as we speak. We don't see it clearly yet, and there is no master blue-print or commander, but there are signs.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Growth as a symptom and not a problem?

Growth is discussed again. The discussion is complicated by that people mean different thing with “growth”. First we can mean growth of the physical resources we have at hand. This is simply not possible, but of course, when we expand, colonize, into places we were not before, to the moon, deeper and deeper in the earth crust or into the sea, deeper inside the molecules, we obviously do expand the possible things we can use for economic activity. Another thing is that we can expand, or reduce, the value of such physical resources. And indeed we do. Things that were valuable, e.g. flint, becomes redundant because of the discovery of iron, and things that were abundant and therefore with no value gradually become scare and therefore valuable, today even sand for construction is a desirable commodity and water is increasingly getting more and more expensive. The beauty, from the perspective of growth, is that the more we deplete a resource the more valuable it becomes, until it collapses as an interesting resource. So in that sense, resource depletion will actually increase the value of the stock and not deplete it. The last decades have also created new growth sectors, the cleaning up sector, where the massive flow of capital to green house gas mitigation is a good example, but there are so many more. The ultimate growth prospect is in the idea of selling that you will not use a resource, to preserve it. And of course, we could create unlimited growth of doing nothing. What will you pay me for not colonizing Mars or what will you pay me for going back to the hunter and gatherer society, personally negating last millennia of environmental destruction. That kind of growth have no limits for sure. Sometimes it is discussed that “fixing” the problem with green house gases will “cost” so and so many per cent of the GDP, but the reality is that it will increase the GDP. The final, and in the long run interesting discussion, about growth is if it will increase our well-being.

There is a paradox that those who are the most positive to the capitalist society and modern technology don't seem to believe in it. Wasn't it the whole idea that we could work a bit less and that industry, technology and energy should relieve us from the toil of work, give us more leisure, more time to enjoy culture or whatever we want to do? How come that those who want that are against a society without growth, a society where people work less and not more? In a similar way, those politician that are skeptical over the growth paradigm are lured into it and speak about “green growth” and “green economy”, which shows how strong the growth paradigm still is.

Perhaps the interesting thing is not to discuss growth or zero-growth but to free our minds from at all use economic growth as a good indicator of development of any kind, whether it is good or bad. Growth is, in this perspective not the problem and certainly not the solution, but just a symptom of other things.

First it is a result of an economic system that needs to expand all time. It seems to have in-built mechanisms that makes standstill impossible, its “stable” mode of operation is growth while no growth, is unstable and is described as crisis (which interestingly enough is the opposite to the normal definition of crisis). It seems to me that it is mainly profit, and the constant expectations of profit that is the primary driver here, and that it might not make such a difference if the profit is comes as rent on capital, speculation or dividends on stock. In a stationary economy, all these forms of profit would lead either to inflation or to that money is transferred from the poor to the rich. And, well, money is transferred from the poor to the rich constantly, and it is only by growth that the poor don't end up starving (which they still do in many parts of the world) or making revolution.

Mirroring this, we humans also aim for increasing our material wealth, that is largely a function of our strive for status, and that status in today's society is acquired by a high income and wealth. The desire for status is rather hard-wired in humanity, in particular among males one might assume with a bit of evolutionist thinking. In most societies there have been mechanisms to keep the hunt for status under control. So even in societies where physical force gave high status, there were limits in how you could express that physical force. Many traditional societies have strong limits for the possibility for the individual to amass property, and the expectation is that you will share with all your siblings, the clan or the community. And even after that money had become important for society, the handling of money was not seen as a status job, in the contrary. The Spaniards didn't take well care of all the silver they stole in America, their nobles didn't want to deal with money, so it was the Dutch and the English that transformed their money into luxury goods (that they did want) from China, and of course made large profits from it. The Spaniards own money was managed by the Genovese. Jews were heavily involved in finance and money matter as much a function of that it was not a noble activity as a result of their own industriousness. In the Ottoman empire, the infidel Greeks were the merchants and bankers as the noble Turks didn't want to soil their hands with such menial work (there is certain irony today that someone will entrust the Greek with their money....). Capitalism did away with all these restrictions and made money making into one of the most noble endeavors and being rich a potent aphrodisiac.

Finally, the introduction of fossil fuel made all this possible, to cut the chains of in-built biological limits, limits that, in any case made growth impossible. It is therefore more interesting to discuss profit; the status of materials wealth; the degradation of nature and the use of energy than growth per se.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Cost of low social capital:10 percent


Many people speak about social capital, which can be explained as the trust, confidence and social institutions (norms) that shape the interactions between us in society (some, including myself, go further and see even the organisational forms of society as part of the social capital (i.e. the government and municipalities). I find it valueable even without trying to ascribe monetary values, but for economists and politicians it seems to have more "bite" if you can express it in dollars, euros or rubles.

The other day I was at the Bertebo conference in Falkenberg, read more at http://www.ksla.se/
where there were many interesting things. The one I wanted to highlight here is the costs of lack of social capital in Russia. Eugenia Serova, Senior adviser at FAO, said that the agri-business companies in Russia had to invest in protection of the farms and/or invest in the local communities to make people friendly for costs reaching 10 percent of the total costs. The CEO of a company engaged in farming in Russia, Black Earth Farming, confirmed that they have 500 guards on the payroll.

and the ice cream? what have they to do with this. Not much actually, but we had a studyvisit to SIA glass which is partly owned by the Bertebo Foundation that sponsor the event. And I needed some interesting picture to capture your interest....

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Don't despair!


I want to make some promotion of this web site, we are all worth a laugh now and then aren't we? http://despair.com/index.html.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

What about a few more people in farming?

In the USA 2008 there were 9.6 milion people employed in restaurants , drinking places and catering. There were 1.5 million in the food manufacturing industry. There were some 15.3 million involved in retail trade. Obviously a lot of those are in the food retail.
There are just above 2 million people employed in farming, hunting and fishing.
Source: Employment Projections Program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Another way of looking at the situation, in a global perspective is that the coffee in your cup, for which you pay one,two or three Euro costs less than 5 cents, of which in turn the farmer only get som 2-3 cents, i.e. one hundredth of what you pay for it.

That is called value-addition....I hope you enjoy the cup!

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Election campaign in Sweden

We have elections coming up in Sweden. This is my contribution to the election campaign.
The sculpture is from the Engelsbergs works, a World Heritage site

How to use the land?

(Photovoltaic elements outside of Heby in Sweden)


Will solar energy farms be a solution for the future? Is it really more efficient to use solar panels on farm land than to grow biomass?

Well, photovoltaic elements seem to have an efficiency of 12-15 percent, e.g. 12-15 percent of the incoming solar energy is captured by the cells and converted to electricity. The photosynthesis supposedly has only a few percents efficiency. I am not hundred percent sure of the math here, but that is what you get from literature. So from that perspective the choice is easy.

Notably, the miracle of the photosynthesis is NOT to just capture energy but to (re)produce life, something quite more remarkable than electricity. Nevertheless, in an energy scarce future we will have these kinds of discussions. Not to speak about the conflict between energy and food...


Another similarly interesting discussion is if you have a dam of water. Will you use that water for:
1. Hydropower
2. Irrigation of biofuel crops
3. Irrigation of food crops
4. Industrial water
5. Household water
6. Tourists water
7. Flooding wet lands to preserve bio-diversity
8. Tear down the dam to restore nature?

In a nature scarce world, there are tough choices to be made.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Being among the 1 percent richest in the world. me, no way!

I work a lot with development issues and think a lot about inequalities in the world. Still I was shocked to realise how privileged I am when I checked my income on the Global Rich List. A great web site.

Microsoft CEO Bill Gates has more wealth than the bottom 45 percent of American households combined

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Winners and losers

What is striking is that the same groups that emphasize that there are no winners and losers with gobalization; that it is beneficial for everybody, they constantly remind us of how important it is that “we keep our edge”, or “improve out competitiveness”, that we upgrade our society so that we are in the forefront of research and technical development. The columnist Thomas L Friedman writes in the World is Flat that:
“So if the flattening of the world is largely (but no entirely) unstoppable, and holds out the potential to be as beneficial to American society as a whole as the past market evolutions have been. How does an individual get the best out of it? What do we tell our kids?. There is only one message: You have to constantly upgrade your skills. There will be plenty of good jobs out there in the flat world for people with the knowledge and ideas to seize them. I am not suggesting that this will be simple. It will not be” (Friedman 2005)

This is echoed by politician from all kinds of camps and by institutions such as the European Union's vision 2020.
“Our economies are increasingly interlinked. Europe will continue to benefit from being one of the most open economies in the world but competition from developed and emerging economies is intensifying. Countries such as China or India are
investing heavily in research and technology in order to move their industries up the value chain and "leapfrog" into the global economy. This puts pressure on some sectors of our economy to remain competitive, but every threat is also an opportunity. As these countries develop, new markets will open up for many European companies”.(European Commission 2010)

Clearly, if is is so important for the USA and Europe to be ahead of the pack, it must be because the ones falling behind are “losers”, i.e. globalization is actually more of a threat for them than an opportunity. Why can't we just relax a bit, spend our energy on cleaning up the environment, reducing our ecological foot-print and enjoy a good life, instead of being coerced into working harder and harder to keep the edge? This, if anything, is the big failure of the globalized market economy. Especially as the actual benefits of unfettered global trade are fairly small.

Even the free trade oriented World Bank states that the "costs" for the current situation compared to full liberalisation corresponds to 0,7 percent of the GDP (World Bank 2007), hardly a “make or break” situation. This was eloquently expressed by the English worker Frank Owen, a character in Robert Tressel's novel, The Ragged Trousered Philantropists from the turn of the previous century:
"We’ve had Free Trade for the last fifty years and to-day most people are living in conditions of more or less abject poverty, and thousands are literally starving. When we had Protection things were worse still. Other countries have Protection and yet many of their people are glad to come here and work for starvation wages. The only difference between Free Trade and Protection is that under certain circumstances one might be a little worse than the other, but as remedies for Poverty, neither of them are of any real use whatever, for the simple reason that they don’t deal with the real causes of Poverty" (Tressel 1955).


Don't misunderstand me. I am not AGAINST globalization. I believe that free movement of goods and of people are human rights. I believe that, in total, there have been more benefits than bad things coming out of globalization, but then I speak about globalization as more than a narrow economic thing. I think of the globalization of human rights, of the internet, of the fact that dictators all over the world don't get away so easily anymore. There are draw-backs and there are benefits of globalization and depending on how the rules are bent it can be good for one and bad for another one. The current globalization has partly been driven, or should we say hi-jacked as a capitalist project opening up all aspects of human life to exploitation. And in that scenario we all have to continue working harder and harder.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Is the sky the limit?

Around thirty-five years ago interest in organic farming developed into a market-oriented concept, and that is when standards and certification were born, to be followed later on, by public regulations. Since then, and recently through a deep global recession, in almost all markets organic sales have maintained their growth. The area of organic farmland also continues to grow, but there are signs that there are limits to this growth. For example, in the last decade, the organic area of a few European countries has actually shrunk or been at a standstill for some years. In most cases this has been associated with changes in how those countries have implemented the European Union support programmes. Small farmers also leave organic certification, not because they stop farming organically, but because they want no involvement with the formalised organic sector and the hassle of certification.

It would be possible for all agriculture to be transformed into following organic methods. It would not be easy. Some aspects of organic farming might have to change. For example, it is hard to see how a total rejection of human waste, now prominent in organic regulations in the EU and the USA, could be combined with a full scale conversion to organic systems. Sewage systems would have to be improved so that what comes out of us could go back to where it came from, as with other cycles in nature. If organic farming was the norm for food production it would also be a logical step to abolish the practice of a special label and special certification. It would be more natural to insist that non-organic food is labelled – with warning messages if needed.

In most countries with an organic movement that has been ‘big’ for many years, most of the farmers that can easily convert to organic systems have already done so. This can be clearly seen by comparing, say, dairy and poultry farms in Northern Europe. In most Northern European countries it is relatively straightforward to convert a dairy farm to organic; the changes in management and infrastructure are not that dramatic. However, a comparable poultry operation is much harder to convert. This can be clearly seen in the proportions of poultry and milk sold respectively. Not only are poultry difficult at the production level; supply is limited and those that do convert demand good prices. So, ultimately market shares are affected as the proportion of buyers shrink when price premiums go from ten to hundred percent.

The strength of consumers’ voluntary choices as a force to change society can be seen when it comes to new technologies that transform our daily lives. Consumers use mobile phones because they are convenient and handy. Consumers buy TVs because they like to watch it. Hundreds of millions are on facebook every day. Certainly, peoples’ voluntary actions have a tremendous potential for change. The organic choice is a somewhat different choice. It is the first, and most the prominent, example of a process-oriented ecolabel, and as such a poster child for those that believe the market can fix all sorts of problem, including the lack of internalisation of costs. Producers and consumers of conventional food do not have to pay the true cost of production of conventional, non-organic food. The cost is paid by tax payers or future generations. If all external costs – that is the costs for water purification, soil degradation, health effects just to mention a few – were incorporated into the price of non-organic food those foods would be more expensive than they are today, some might be on par with organic, some perhaps remain cheaper others more expensive than organic food. The question of whether some consumers should voluntarily shoulder the costs while others can be free-riders is not only a practical one, but also a philosophical and ethical one. It may also be the reason for? that health – the only aspect of consuming organic products where the benefits are accrued by the consumer – is the killer argument in favour of buying organic products. The environmental or animal welfare benefits of buying organic foods are shared by those buying conventional food. It is rather naïve to believe that this system will be the system that carries organic production from a couple percent to the mainstream. The organic labelling system is a forerunner, but it certainly needs assistance for the transformation of agriculture to a situation where ‘organic’ is simply normal.

Leader in the upcoming issue of The Organic Standard

Monday, August 9, 2010

A barrel of oil: a ton of maize

According to FAO, 6,000 MJ of fossil energy (corresponding to a barrel of oil) is used to product one ton of maize in industrial farming, while for the production of maize with traditional methods in Mexico only 180 MJ (corresponding to 4.8 liter oil) is used. This calculation claims to include energy for synthetic fertilizers, irrigation and machinery, but not shadow energy, i.e. energy used for making machinery, transporting products to and fro the farm, and for construction of farm buildings (FAO 2000). The energy ratio is negative (below 1) for modern rice farming and just above one for modern maize farming, while traditional production of rice and maize give a return of 60 to 70 times on energy used . FAO has also compiled average data for energy yields for developed and developing countries respectively (see table). It shows that developed countries use more than double the amount of energy to produce a ton of grain, and three times as much per hectare (the reason for it being more per hectare is that yields are a bit higher in developed countries). FAO notes that “productivity is higher” when more energy is used, and with that they mean in particular productivity per labor unit. One could of course put it the other way round and say that the productivity measured on used energy is very low. When we discuss bio-energy this discussion is suddenly very relevant.

Different kinds of agriculture production and different food also have different energy ratios. The energy ratio is very low for deep sea fishing; for meat production from feed lots and from vegetables in heated green houses . A big share (often above 50%) of the energy use in farming is for the production of synthetic fertilizers, in particular nitrogen fertilizers, and pesticides. This also means that the contentious debate about organic vs conventional (non-organic) farming has a strong element of energy dependency debate. If improved energy ratio is a primary goal for farming, skipping, or at least dramatically reducing, nitrogen fertilizers is one of the best ways to get there.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

10 million people own a third of all assets

Are you a HNWI? If so you are one of 10 million guys controlling one third of all assets. And while the world economy went into recession your wealth increased some 19 percent.

The most commonly quoted figure for "membership" in the high net worth "club" is $1 million in liquid financial assets.

The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) grew 17.1% to 10.0 million in 2009.The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) returned to 10 million in 2009, increasing by 17.1% over 2008. HNWI financial wealth increased 18.9% from 2008 levels to $39 trillion. After losing 24.0% in 2008, Ultra-HNWIs saw wealth rebound 21.5% in 2009. Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by 21.5% in 2009. In terms of the total Global HNWI population remains highly concentrated with the U.S, Japan and Germany accounting for 53.5% of the world’s HNWI population, down slightly from 2008. Source: World Wealth Report 2010. The World Wealth Report covers 71 countries in the market-sizing model, accounting for more than 98% of
global gross national income and 99% of world stock market capitalization.

World GDP, also known as world gross domestic product or GWP - gross world product, calculated on a nominal basis, was estimated at $65.61 trillion in 2007 by the CIA World Factbook

Global household wealth amounted to $125 trillion in the year 2000. The richest 2% of adults in the world own more than half of global household wealth according to a path-breaking study released today by the Helsinki-based World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University (UNU-WIDER).

well there are many different ways one can present the data of world inequality - they all have one thing in common. It is appalling.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

We are part of society and society is part of us.


"We are governed and driven by our DNA, our brain and by our culture. It is all about information. DNA is coded information which governs some, but not all of our actions. Our brain receives impulses from the inside or the outside and processes this information and take action to improve our chances of survival. It does that in sync with our genes, but not as a slave under our genes. Our culture is the collective memory of who we are, where we came from and where we are heading. This memory, this information also guides a lot of our actions. We are formed by culture during our upbringing and in this way each generation is adapted to the prevailing culture. There is always an element of revolt as well, young generations opposing the ruling ideas and experimenting with new ideas or new ways of living. This can be seen similar as mutations on the gene level, ensuring variation and that development will take place.

In this way culture and society are rather extensions of our human bodies; we don’t really exist without it. The lonely able savage (as depicted e.g. by Rousseau) or his later followers are constructions, we were never alone. Without society we are as helpless as an ant without his anthill or a bee without a hive. Few of us would have the force, like the queen bee to establish a new colony. It is like that we should see society (not to be confused by the state), like an organism. Society is the organisational form so to say and culture is the information in its wider sense (including religion, economy etc.).

Therefore, we can’t pitch the individual against society. Sure there will be, and has always been, a tension between the independence of the individual and the demands of submission of society (I am myself an example of an individual that most reluctantly submit myself to the demands and expectations of society) – but this tension is part of the project of being a human. To see ourselves and society as integral parts of being human is a first step in thinking about how we can build a better world. And they are in contrast to (not negating, but transcending) both the socio-biological idea that we only act in the self-interest of our genes and the capitalist ideology of that each person acts as an individual in order to increase his or her direct benefits."



I am busy writing the English version of my book Garden Earth, the above is an extract from it.

Friday, July 23, 2010

To respect nature is to respect ourselves

Apart from the direct and indirect services we get from nature, nature also has great esthetical and cultural value for us. It gives us another perspective, many reference points; it is an unprecedented piece of art.

Nothing we do can compete with a piece of nature. A square meter of land contains so many organisms, with so complicated and complex relationships with each other that we can’t understand them. One gram of forest soil may contain over a million bacteria colonies. It is estimated that several million individual animals and over a thousand different species may reside beneath one square meter of soil surface (Perry 1994), and all of them are constituted by many, many cells and there is interaction between them, exchange of energy and nutrient, eating and to be eaten. Most likely a square meter of nature is more complex and contains more information than the whole internet.

There are some 100,000,000,000,000 cells in a human body. I don’t know how many bits of information there is in the cell as such, but there are some 30,000 genes in each cell. Just for the sake of getting some number say there is a million bytes of information per cell and its relation with the other cells. Then we would arrive at 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 bits which is something like 10 exabyte of information. Never heard about an exabyte? No wonder. The first terabyte (SI prefix, 1000000000000 bytes) hard disk drive was introduced in 2007, and an exabyte is a million terabyte -which in turn is a million gigabyte, to bring it down to the scale of our own hard drives.

OK number-crunchers, anyone up for the challenge of proving me wrong, don’t ask me to prove it right, I haven’t tried!

The purpose with the exercise is not to bash the internet or modern technology and to say that it is worthless and a nit-wit’s accomplishment - it is just to realise how little we know about the wonders of nature; even of ourselves. And then I have only thought about the physical expression of ourselves. Our imagination and ingenuity creates a lot more - drama, movies, songs, love, hate, sensations and emotions all over the place, yes and the internet as well....

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

What's in a name?

At the latest European organic conference in Rome delegates discussed what should be part of the EU organic Regulation and what should not. Organic food has been in fashion for a while and some organic standard-setters, certification bodies and companies have rushed to expand the use of the term ‘organic’ into other sectors. Most prominently the term is often used for textiles and cosmetics, but also in water, salt, fisheries, forestry, building sectors, –in fact you name it and it is probably there. Parallel to this there is also the inclusion of many new aspects associated with the organic sector, e.g. its effect on climate change, biodiversity and social conditions. The term ‘Organic’ is thus moving further and further away from the ‘no chemical fertilisers, no pesticides’ market claim that it was in many countries.

Both developments are somewhat problematic. To what extent they really respond to market needs is not clear, nor is it clear whether the drive is mainly by a self-interested certification industry, or by people who like to tell other people what to do. If one sees the term as a ‘brand’ there are many reasons to question the wisdom of stretching the use of this successful brand into new areas. Normally, that leads to erosion of its image. Of course ‘organic’ is not a normal brand and does not necessarily follow the normal rules, but still there is most certainly a risk in expanding its use to cover things far from its agricultural origins. The organic sector is also not credible, or competent, as a rule maker for production categories that fall largely outside agriculture. It makes more sense that associations of craftsmen, builders or architects discuss eco-building rather than farmers and supermarkets; and that weavers, spinners and apparel makers develop textile standards. The inherent ‘values’ of ‘organic’ might not translate easily to other product segments. The same consumer that wants the t-shirt to be made with organic cotton, may simultaneously go for high-tech outdoor stuff, made by plastic and possibly with nano-particles.

The inclusion of more aspects of production in organic standards is to some extent the opposite, it is about ‘deepening’ the organic idea and proposition. Very often the rules of those ‘new’ subjects are not sensitive enough for the contradictions that may occur, and there may be trade-offs. For example, air freight of one product may mean an improvement of the livelihood of a community; or limiting green house gas emissions from agriculture may sometimes conflict with bio-diversity or animal welfare. Each new subject carries with it new values and subjective judgments. One can influence both organic producers and consumers and change values, some of them quite rapidly, in society, but it still goes that the more things added, fewer people will feel comfortable with the whole package.

The fundamental problem is perhaps the combination of a ‘do good’ system, which organic systems most definitively are, with an institution that does not have ‘do good’ as its main principle, rather the opposite – the market. Markets are driven by profits, a fundamental tenet of the market system we humans have created. Is it really realistic to expect an institution that was never intended to do good or to be fair to be that? If we look at it like that many of the inherent conflicts in the organic movement become more understandable. Organic as a concept, illustrated by the four principles of organic as developed by IFOAM, is not market-oriented at all. On the contrary, it clearly adheres to principles that go far beyond, or above, sometimes also against, the market. But the ‘organic market’ is clearly market-oriented, those that are in that market will not survive long unless they are market-oriented. It is because of the market, competition and communication with the consumers that we formulated organic standards and have certification systems. Many don’t accept this perspective but believe that the standards are – or should be - an expression of organic principles. A third group, perhaps, sees the whole idea of organic standards as an abomination; using standards to define organic methods is like using a plough for no-till farming. It is not so much about right or wrong here. Still it is quite obvious that the majority of the certified organic farmers follow the details of organic standards because they want to market their products as organic, and that organic standards, as they are written today, are written with that use very much in mind. The people developing standards should have these issues more often in mind. The itch or urge to write more rules should perhaps sometimes find sublimation in some other way?

The text above is the leader of the coming issue of The Organic Standard, the special journal for organic standards, certification and regulation which Grolink publishes and of which I am the acting "publisher"

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Green Internet - a Pie in the sky?

"You will eat, bye and bye,
In that glorious land above the sky;
Work and pray, live on hay,
You'll get pie in the sky when you die."
sang Swedish born, US worker leader and poet Joe Hill, expressing how promises of a brighter future makes us accept the current status. Today "Pie in the sky" is perhaps used more to express that some promises are untenable or impractical. The promise of IT to be of use for a clean, green future looks more and more like a pie in the sky....

We here a lot of about how modern technology can provide solutions to energy consumption and global warming. And it is true that you can find a lot of smart solutions. Video conferencing is typically such a thing that could "save" a lot of energy and emissions, compared to people flying to meet. But often these new opportunities just put themselves on top of what we already are doing, and instead of replacing a flight with a video conference, we are perhaps more likely to replace our conference call with a video conference, which then was no net saving.....Anyway let us still be positive about the possibilities for saving energy through IT. But what about IT itself? I always thought that, "well, of course all this IT stuff uses a lot of energy, but compared to cars or steel mills it must be negligeable". A new report from Greenpeace makes me think differently.
According to this report 623 TWh of electricity is used to drive the servers and the internet globally. That is an awful lot of electricity, just to give you an idea:
- The USA produced some 800 TWh from ALL its nuclear plants and the total electricity consumption of ther USA is just above 4,000 TWh. (EIA).
- The total electricity production in the UK was 382 TWh year 2004 (Wikipedia)
- The total energy consumption of Sweden was 398 TWh 2006 and the electricity consumption was 130 TWh (Energiindikatorer 2008).
This is really worrying.

Even more worrying is that the forecast is that there will be used 1,964 TWh of electricity to drive the internet by year 2020.

And remember, electricity is an energy bearer and not an energy source, all this electricity must come from somewhere and there is no chance that we will produce it with solar or wind for many decades to come. And also think about that these figures are for the internet, they are not for your own laptop, your cellphone, or all the masts for their signals or even for your company's own server.....

A blog post on Greenpeace site also tells the following:
There are 50 million computer servers in the world today. And a recent report by BusinessWeek says that, of the 8 million new servers added each year, 50% are bound for data centers. That’s 4 million additional servers per year that will be used to store and deliver computing programs and services over the Internet, or “cloud”. IT Companies are quickly developing cloud-based offerings and building data centers to house servers that store all of the data the cloud delivers - email, photos, videos, entertainment, news, and computing programs. As more and more electricity is required to operate these data centers and run the servers, IT companies are looking for ways to keep their power costs low, which means cheap, dirty power. Unfortunately, a strategy that is still being employed by many IT companies to keep the overhead down is to locate data centers in places where “cheap” coal-fired electricity is available. In January, for example, Facebook commissioned a new data center in Oregon and entered a power service agreement with a utility called PacificCorp, which gets most of its electricity from coal-fired power stations. Just this week, eBay unveiled its new flagship data center, located in South Jordan, Utah, a state that derives 81% of its electricity from coal.
read more

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Some consolation for us grumpy old men

I am not very active on my blog now. Sorry for that, but the first reason is that I am busy writing the English version of my book. The second reason is that it is spring! I will not bother you with reason 3-10.

So just to entertain the occasional reader I post some stolen goods, here from the BBC:

Feeling grumpy 'is good for you'

Victor Meldrew sitcom character
An attack of the grumps can make you communicate better, it is suggested

In a bad mood? Don't worry - according to research, it's good for you.

An Australian psychology expert who has been studying emotions has found being grumpy makes us think more clearly.

In contrast to those annoying happy types, miserable people are better at decision-making and less gullible, his experiments showed.

more on http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8339647.stm

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Earth as an apple

I came accross this on the Endangered Spaces blog:

Cut an apple into quarters. Put aside three of those quarters. These slices represent the oceans of our world.


What is left is 1/4. Slice it in half. Set aside one of the halves. This is the part of the Earth on which people cannot live, the poles, deserts, swamps and high mountains.


What is left is 1/8. This is where the humans live, but not necessarily where they grow their food.


Slice your 1/8 piece into four sections. Put aside three of them. What is left is 1/32. The three pieces you set aside represent the places where the soil is too poor to farm--too rocky, wet, cold or steep. These also represent the cities, homes, highways, shopping malls, schools, parks, factories, parking lots and golf courses where people live play and work--but do not grow food.

Take the 1/32 piece that remains. Carefully peel it. Look at this tiny scrap of apple peel. This represents the surface topsoil of the planet that may be farmed. This thin skin represents the thin skin on the Earth's crust upon which humankind totally depends. This soil is less than 5 feet deep and is a fixed amount of food-producing land.

Eat the rest of your apple, but save that tiny piece of apple skin. Treat is as if your life depends on it.

For more information on using this as a teaching tool, please visit this website.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Nitrogen in the biosphere - a cliffhanger

In a recent report by Johan Rockström and many other leading scientists, Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity the nitrogen cycle is identified as one of three areas (together with climate regulation and biological diversity) where we have surpassed a threshold for stable development. Nitrogen is the most common compound in the air, which is composed of some 78 percent nitrogen. Most of the nitrogen is, however totally inert biologically. It can be converted into active forms, such as nitrate and ammonia through thunderstorms, fire and biological processes such as symbiotic nitrogen fixation (by Rhizobium bacteria in the roots of leguminous plants) or fixation by blue green algae, nowadays called cyanobacteria. Nitrogen is a main building block in proteins and amino acids as well as in nucleic acids like RNA and DNA. The changes in the nitrogen cycles are manifold more market than the changes in the carbon cycle. The quantity biologically active nitrogen in the biosphere has increased nine times in hundred years, most of the increase has occurred the last fifty years (see figure). Increased use of synthetic fertilizers is the dominating reason. The increase is also projected to continue from 165 million tones year 2000 to 270 millions year 2050 (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Locally we can see great effects of the release of all this Nitrogen, while the global impact is less certain, what is certain is that there will be an impact.




As mentioned above, nitrogen plays a critical role in life processes, and the short term effect of improved availability of Nitrogen is often improved growth, e.g. that the forests grow better. Nitrogen hungry plants are favored over those that don’t need so much nitrogen, e.g. grasses a re favored over herbs and over leguminous plants. Surplus of Nitrogen and Phosphorus are according to Millennium Ecosystem Assessment one of the single most important factor for changes in ecosystems. The effluent of Nitrogen to the sea has increased with 80 percent between 1860 and 1990. However, in some areas the effluent has been more or less constant while the North Sea and coasts off China and the USA receive up to 15 times as much nitrogen now compared to hundred and fifty years ago. This run-off leads to eutrophication with tremendous effects on the composition of species, and in particular it stimulate the bloom of algae and the therewith associated dead zones, such as part of the Mexican gulf and the Baltic Sea. The use of synthetic fertilizers has lead to higher and higher levels of nitrates in drinking waters. Nitrogen also plays a role in the formation of tropospheric ozone, which leads to damage on crops and plants (MEA 2005). Synthetic fertilizers cause losses of other important nutrients such as calcium and phosphorus as well as acidification of soils and waterway (IAASTD 2009). Finally, the production of Nitrogen fertilizers is very energy consuming and in addition it incurs great emissions of laughing gas, one of the greenhouse gases. Mono-cropping of grain which is rather closely associated to the use of synthetic fertilizers leads to a reduction of carbon in soils and thereby increase the green house gases.

Agriculture represent two thirds of the emissions of nitrous oxide, the third greenhouse gas of importance. These emissions are directly related to the nitrogen cycle. The increase of livestock and even the use of chemical fertilizers are key divers. The use of nitrogen fertilizers is extremely inefficient and a lot more nitrogen is added to the soil than what is taken away with the harvest. The rest of this nitrogen “gets lost”, some of it as nitrate run off some of it as emissions of nitrous gases. In addition, nitrogen fertilizers also consume a lot of energy for their production. Studies of grain production in Great Britain and Sweden shows an almost linear correlation between use of nitrogen fertilizers and GHG emissions (KRAV 2008). Reduced use of nitrogen fertilizer should be a main strategy for reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture.

In summary, there are good, and frightening, reasons to follow closely the development of the nitrogen cycle. We should not be surprised if we find effects and costs associated with disturbed nitrogen cycles as dramatic as those of the carbon cycle. Considering how farmers and farm lands have become “addicted” to the use of synthetic fertilizers it could become a real thriller to reduce nitrogen effluents. (Extract from Garden Earth)

Monday, May 17, 2010

Research Links Pesticides With ADHD In Children

CARLA K. JOHNSON, AP Medical Writer writes the 16 May 2o1o:
Children may be especially prone to the health risks of pesticides because they're still growing and they may consume more pesticide residue than adults relative to their body weight.
In the body, pesticides break down into compounds that can be measured in urine. Almost universally, the study found detectable levels: The compounds turned up in the urine of 94 percent of the children. The kids with higher levels had increased chances of having ADHD, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, a common problem that causes students to have trouble in school. The findings were published Monday in Pediatrics. "Exposure is practically ubiquitous. We're all exposed," said lead author Maryse Bouchard of the University of Montreal.

She said people can limit their exposure by eating organic produce. Frozen blueberries, strawberries and celery had more pesticide residue than other foods in one government report.
A 2008 Emory University study found that in children who switched to organically grown fruits and vegetables, urine levels of pesticide compounds dropped to undetectable or close to undetectable levels.

Read more

Monday, May 3, 2010

Finally!























Finally my book Trädgården Jorden (Garden Earth) was launched at an event at the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry in Stockholm.


The event was chaired by former minister of agriculture, Annika Åhnberg. The form of the launch was that I made a 20 minutes presentation and the Janken Myrdal, professor of agrarian history at the Agriculture University and Jacop Rutqvist from the (liberal) think tank FORES commented my book. After that the audience could ask question and debate. It was a nice event. Most participants also bought my book.

Below I give the English reader a taste of the book, a rough translation of the Swedish introduction. Now as the book is published in Swedish I will start in earnest to work with the English version , which will be more than just a translation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Introduction

The golden rule as formulated in the Bible is "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets.” (Matt.7:12). It is found in various forms in most religions and philosophies, e.g. in Hinduism: " One should never do that to another which one regards as injurious to one’s own self. This, in brief, is the rule of dharma." (Mahabharata Section CXIII).

Can our - the rich countries’- lifestyle be applied by seven or even ten billion people and future generations, without harming the ecosystem and our own humanity in an irreversible way? It is one of the starting points of this book. One could call it a global golden rule. If the answer is no to the question, we can conclude that our lifestyle is not sustainable and we should take the consequences.

The human being is a great colonizer. She has spread and almost everywhere, she managed to find an ecological niche. In many of these niches her place was well-defined, her numbers were governed by the limitations of the natural environment, and she often had no opportunity to radically alter the terms thereof. Therefore, traditional communities who lived on the gathering, hunting and fishing remained relatively stable. With agriculture began a new phase. Man changed the ecosystems to a much wider extent than ever, it also led to changes in social organization with the introduction of the ruler and the slave. Agricultural society was in many ways more sensitive to disturbances, and the impact of natural phenomena could be dramatic for humanity. Soil degradation was a recurring reason for societies’ collapse or gradual decline. Plague, other epidemics and failures of key crops could suddenly throw masses of people into starvation.

The next major change was when man began to harness fossil fuels. This freed her from basically depending on her own metabolism and biomass which she took from others in nature; she could now bring incredible resources to work. Ecosystems were reshaped in an unprecedented extent. This coincided with the industrialization and the introduction of a capitalist market economy. Industrialization increased human control of nature, in principle, to all corners of the globe. We go further, climb and fly higher, dive and drill deeper, all in order to find more resources to exploit. This lead to a marked expansion of the areas in direct service of man, particularly forests and oceans. Industrialism also provided new force to the farming man. In the first stage power and tools to expand arable land (iron plows), but over time also more and more machines which increase the work performed per person. This was followed by a sharp increase in the input of energy, so that agriculture from being a net producer of energy becomes a net consumer of energy.

Our modern society has freed man from old chains and limitations and has created enormous wealth. It has meant an ever-increasing labor productivity; we can produce more per hour worked. Old prejudices and oppression have been broken down, and freedom and human rights have risen sharply. This was very direct and welcome for serfs and oppressed people. The idea of equal worth of all people is - at least in theory - universally accepted. There are several components in our modern society, which all contributed to this development. Central are political democracy, capitalism, the great use of external energy, mainly in the form of fossil fuels, great use of other natural resources and industrialization with a far-reaching division of labor.

But we have reached a point where the system exhibits a strong reduction in marginal utility, or in some cases diminishing returns. What previously was a positive force, the restless search for new countries, new areas to colonize, the liberation of man from tradition, affirmation of the individual over community, a far-reaching division of labor and that everything can be bought and sold on a market, all these contribute to destruction now. More capitalism, more oil and coal, more chimneys were perhaps great slogans during the 1800s, they were probably still good in many parts of the world during the 1900s, but today, fewer and fewer areas need it. Since 1950, oil production tenfold, and the overall economic activity in the world increased six times. Meanwhile, carbon emissions quadrupled, world population has become 2.5 times larger, and the economic gap between the 20% poorest and the richest 20% more than doubled. The global socio-economic and ecological system is thus rapidly changing and the pace of change is increasing constantly. This means that we live in an unstable system (Helmfrid and Haden 2006).

My intention is to illustrate this further, but also to make a clearer link between the ecological crisis, our well-being, our society and the economic system, capitalism. I summarize the most critical points below:

1. Our relationship to nature is characterized by over-exploitation of raw materials and natural resources. Certainly history shows that we have a remarkable capacity to overcome the limitations of our natural environment, but nevertheless, our use of both mineral resources and all the living resources with its origin in photosynthesis, are now at a level that simply can not be sustained. It can be expressed in different ways as we are soon reaching the "peak oil”, that our ecological footprint is already one and half soil and that we are already taking nearly half of the entire biosphere in direct use.

2. We have unleashed 100 000 chemicals, but we have no idea how they affect us. We take medicines and eat food additives and pesticides we spray on our food. We have very little knowledge about the long term impact on us by the cocktail of chemicals we disseminate, and still less do we know how it affects our living environment.

3. The greatest ecological challenge is the impact we have on the services we have, until now completely free, by nature, so-called ecosystem services. We know that our release of greenhouse gases, largely an effect of extraction of fossil fuels and degradation of natural resources, will lead to marked changes in climate, with great human and material costs as a result. In addition, we have caused severe reduction of biological diversity, the very web of life on earth. We are manipulating other life processes, such as the nitrogen cycle, in a scale and in such a way that it will lead to sudden crises.

4. The production and productivity revolution, which we explain with entrepreneurship, the superiority of capitalism and the individual's strive for personal gain can be equally interpreted as the result of one thing: access to external sources of energy, primarily fossil fuel. But the energy source are drying up and use of energy is the cause of other problems, most obviously the greenhouse effect. At least equally serious is that energy is the engine itself in almost any other resource consumption and degradation of ecosystem services.

5. The system does not have sufficient self-correcting feedback loops to keep income inequality in check; the only thing that can keep it running is a constant economic growth so that those at the bottom, after all, will be a little better off every year. This is not primarily an economic problem but a social and moral problem. The difference between reality and a rhetoric in which all are said to be equal and have the same opportunities is simply too great.

6. The capitalist model of development was most successful in countries which industrialized first, followed by countries which had different comparative advantages in certain development stages. But large parts of humanity are outside of the development, both the individuals who are left behind in industrialized countries and those whole countries which have no comparative advantages to exploit. Just as not all communities could make the transition from gathering and hunting to farming communities, many communities today can not make the transition to a capitalist society because they lack the right conditions.

7. The values, attitudes and the mechanisms which form the foundation of capitalism, is in contrast to the harmonious development of society. Competition is promoted at the expense of cooperation; self-interest instead of solidarity and commitment to others, private property against the interests of society; individualism above consideration of others; exploitation rather than management or nursing. Yes, the whole of society must obey the, supposedly value-free and thus objective and fair, market, rather than being guided by subjective and emotional values. We get a society whose role is to serve the market and a market whose role is to serve individuals' short-term interests.

8. It is certainly within the human nature to be a little dissatisfied, wanting more, to explore new opportunities. Without those properties, we had probably never become human beings in the first place. It is in society's nature to contain these desires so that they continue to benefit us all. With the capitalist takeover of society, these restrictions don’t work anymore, and we are all trapped in a treadmill of ever-increasing consumption. This consumption, driven by several of the factors above, has made us healthier, wiser, more beautiful and more happy to begin with, but it has long crossed a line after which more things does not mean more wellbeing.

By and large, you can see capitalism, both the economic system and the values on which it builds and advocates as a system and an ideology of colonization. It's about colonization in the classical sense, i.e. conquest of other cultures and countries, but it is as much about the colonization of larger and larger parts of nature. Our exploitation of nature is now nearly complete, and not only that, we are reducing the capital, the stocks, of raw materials the bio-geosphere built up over millions of years, so that we become poorer by the year. Contrary to the prevailing opinion, the so-called invisible hand can’t manage the economic system, let alone the ecological and social systems that are even more important for our survival.

Now we are there. We have reached the end of the road. There is nothing left to colonize. Therefore, we must replace the mechanisms and the logic that drove us here with new ways of thinking that is more suited to where we are now. Many of the required changes have already begun, albeit often on a small scale. A regime change or shift in our paradigms usually occur after small gradual changes, even those changes that sometimes manifested by sudden events, as Rome's surrender for invading Vandals year 455, the French revolution in 1789, or the fall of the Berlin wall two hundred years later. Some fifty countries have now stabilized, or even declining, populations, many of these exhibits also very moderate economic growth, and in particular growth which is not so resource materially resource intensive. Organic farming, passive heating, electric bicycles and solar energy represent some technologies which are better adapted to a resource-efficient society. The wild has found new ways to coexist with humans (the Peregrine falcon breeds in London) and humans have found new ways to coexist with the wild. Interest in local communities and direct democracy and participatory organizational forms is growing. On the international scene, we see much more dynamism and development of civil society platforms for cooperation than in the frameworks of nation states co-operation. Finally, a change of values have started, more and more people want to jump off the treadmill and focus on what gives real well-being. The change in values is reinforced by changes in population age structure. It is not about by command creating a zero-growth society or forcing people to live in subsistence villages, it is about releasing man's creative power from an idea that has done much good but which has nothing to offer us for the future.

While the rich world would do well to tighten the belt a notch or two, many people still live in poverty without the most basic amenities. More important than anything else is that Ethiopia's rural poor can control their land; that they get electric lights; clean water and effective sanitation arrangements; that the Chinese peasant can say what he wants and live where he wants without risking punishment, that the Afghan girl does not have to wear the burka and can work with what she wants and marry whoever she wants and that Brazilian landless may take part of the country's vast resources.

As a contrast to the capitalist ideology, I offer Garden Earth. Garden Earth expresses that we consider the globe as a garden that we take care of. We simply have to go back to Eden. But we can no longer do so as the innocent creatures we were when we were driven out. We can no longer be there as equals with the giraffe, the carrots and the lamb. Whether we like it or not, the future of the Earth, of Eden, is entirely dependent on us, and not just our own fate but also the other species' fates in our hands. We will have to intensify parts of the use of "our" parts of Garden Earth, if we do not, we will not “afford” to let other areas used less intensively. But intensification does not mean that we must destroy more resources. On the contrary, we shall intensify across the board, and cyclical resource loops will be the guiding principle. Just as we create different rooms in a garden, we will do it in the Garden Earth. Some spaces are our urban environment, it should be dense and intense. Other places are "wild", where we keep a low profile, but we must intervene here and there to correct things that nature can no longer manage. Between these two extremes is a range of different types and degrees and human stewardship. There are extensive, semi-wild farming systems, which do not produce so much food, but many ecosystem services. There are forests not only producing timber but also forest mushrooms, berries, game and other things we use on sustainable basis and a variety of ecosystem services. There are also intensively cultivated fields, more like gardening, some of which under greenhouses. These are near the cities and is characterized by intensive, but wise and efficient, use of resources and an intensive exchange of resources with the city.

The book is organized like this.
Part 1 provides a brief description of human development. One should not discuss the current situation or the future without a perspective back. We are still by and large a product of our history and even if we want to think of ourselves as modern, it is significant how stuck we are in the conventions regarding both our thinking and how we live. My description of the history acknowledges that economic incentives have played a small role in the development of mankind and that markets and money were marginal phenomenon until the medieval city-states, while the ecological conditions, the technical progress and social conditions were crucial, both for society at large and for the individual's behavior and values. With the introduction of agriculture followed private property, elites, oppression, the state, religion and a number of other institutions which characterized the world for a long time. Later on capitalism came with an enormous liberation of man from the shackles of the past, but she was subjected to a new, simpler, but no less cruel logic, "produce or die". With capitalism, not only the distribution of goods is built around a market, but that market will eventually, in many small and some big steps take over the entire society. Instead of the market serving society and mankind as a whole the society serves the market.

The importance of fossil fuels for the last two hundred years of development can not be stressed enough. It is unlikely that anything even close to the developments we have seen could have been done as a result of capitalism or industrialization without fossil fuels. Just as the earlier civilizations could not have developed without agriculture. The easiest way we might understand the importance is by translating the energy levels we have at our disposal to human labor units. And with that approach, we have 200 billion slaves working for us - but the good thing is that we do not have to feed them all. Industrialism is the way this energy is used to, like sailing ships for a long time was the main way to use wind energy, and the open fire for cooking is still in our day the most common way to use bio-energy.

Leo Tolstoy writes in the introduction to Anna Karenina (Tolstoy 1925) that "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way". From this literary achievement is formulated the Anna Karenina principle, which in general means that for things to be good, a whole series of conditions must be met, while for something to be bad just one factor wrong is enough. We can apply this principle also when discussing the development of society. I part 2 and 3 of Garden Earth I discuss the various factors which are critical to our existence and our well-being.

Part 2 describes many of the environmental and provisioning challenges that humanity faces. These challenges can be broadly grouped into over-exploitation of resources; poisoning of ourselves and nature, and the pressures on entire ecosystems and the services they do us. As fuel in all the processes that cause these challenges are fossil fuels and our own population. Agriculture is dealt with in detail because of the central role of agriculture for our survival; agriculture takes up much of the planet's surface and how we run it is very important for many critical processes, and services delivered by the nature that was there before the fields must be replaced. Agriculture is also very sensitive to the disruption of major ecological cycles (with the climate as a very clear example) and agricultural produce our food, but must also increasingly produce bio-energy and ecosystem services. The aim is not to be complete; there are numerous challenges which are not described, for example, ozone layer depletion and deforestation; over-fishing is just dealt with in passing.
I also introduce the view of nature that guides me, a vision which is in opposition to the capitalist view of nature as a source of raw materials and waste dump, but also in opposition to “deep ecology” ideas that man is an animal like any other and the idea that nature regulates itself in a way that is "good".

Part 3 is devoted to the social organism we have created, the community or society. I introduce the society as part of the human organism; upbringing and culture as part of evolution, but something that lifts us above both genes’ and self-interests short-term-ness and nearsightedness. If we see our society as a "meta-human", as an extension of the individual, the eternal opposition between heredity and environment can disappear, our society is then a part of the people and culture; values and norms other environmental factors are like society's genetic code, which is passed from generation to generation.

Many of the challenges of our social system and economy have a strong relationship with, and show similarities with, the challenges we have in relation to nature. They include, for example, that our society has no self-regulatory mechanisms for vital functions. We experience recurrent economic crises. At the same time there are ongoing environmental and resource crises everywhere on earth. But their impact may not get as much attention when in fact they should be the focus of our actions. Isn’t the collapse of fisheries a greater tragedy than the sub-prime loan crisis? Our accounts reflect only the parameters that we have agreed to keep records for, and we have become so accustomed to see only the economic factors as those being important.
We rush through both work and leisure. Are we happier? There is actually nothing to suggest that. As with natural resources, human well-being is not accounted for. It is a bit of a residual item, something you can discuss when all economic discussions are finished.

Why is that? How did that happen? Even the most materialist of us love and want to be loved, enjoys a good book or music, sees beauty in the falling leaves, just to mention a few examples. In fact, these things are much more important than the purely material. To live in a society in a social context is crucial for all people and investment in social capital may be among the most effective in creating the foundations of happiness and well being. Capitalist economy and values, however, then to break down the social fabric.

Large parts of humanity, about 900 million, live in extreme poverty (less than a dollar a day), and 2 billion live on less than two dollars a day. Eight hundred and fifty million are malnourished. Average life expectancy is below 50 years in 32 countries. Broadly speaking, poverty is located in what we call developing countries, almost all of them colonies of European countries a century ago. There is remarkable poverty, however, even in countries like the United States. Despite all the rhetoric, the capitalist system has not managed to eradicate poverty. The differences in wealth do not appear to be diminish at all, but if anything increase, which, of course, is unsustainable in the long term. The sections on economics and how society works can be provocative in an age where capitalism's final victory has been declared, and all possible alternatives is discredited. Thirty years of environmental policies shows that, despite all the rhetoric about the green economy, capitalism as a social system does not have the ability to manage the fact that natural resources are limited. Fifty years of discussions, assistance and development measures also show that the global economy offers no easy path to success - and perhaps no way at all - for those countries which are lagging behind. I criticize the inflated self-image of capitalism, but that does not mean I agree with most of the anti-capitalist demagogy. Above all, I do not buy conspiracy theories, with obese men in top hats (perhaps gradually superseded by the slender, botoxed and top trimmed women in costume) knowingly destroying nature and abusing workers. Of course, such happens sometimes, but mostly it's just behavioral patterns and the rules of the game that makes it happening. I discuss globalization, and show the benefits and some problems, as it entails. For me, the issue of globalization, is first and foremost a freedom issue, the freedom to transcend the arbitrary boundaries that originate in authoritarian and warring nation-states. That freedom should not apply just goods and capital, but even more people.

Part 4 is a summary of conclusions and policy options. By now it should be clear that I doubt we can solve the challenges we have within the capitalist paradigm. I demonstrate a number of trends which are also pointing in the direction of change. Particularly important are the demographic changes and the changes in the values attributed to them. I point to the importance of society for human welfare. It is in the organization of society we shall find the keys to how we organize ourselves in the future. Of the four spheres of the market, government, civil society and the private, capitalism has strengthened the market and the private and changed the role of the state. The future is not to let the state take over the production and distribution, but to further develop various forms of local stewardship, to let communities and civil society play a larger role.
The political discourse is mostly about things like tax rates and marginal adjustments to existing mechanisms. But the great challenges are to change the self-reinforcing processes, the positive feedback loops that exist, and even more to challenge the entire system of thought that are the basis for our view of society. I distrust utopias, but I give at least some ideas about how a radically different system would look like. That is a work in progress, which hopefully can grow stronger through the reactions I get from readers of the book.